Confident that Bitcoin will soar to new highs on "U.S. Election Day"! Standard Chartered: "In this scenario," it could break $100,000 by the end of the year
Standard Chartered's global digital asset research head, Geoff Kendrick, has predicted that Bitcoin could reach $73,000 on November 5, the day of the U.S. presidential election, marking a new historical high.
Geoff Kendrick noted that this forecast is primarily based on a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin derivatives and trading volume indicators. He stated on Thursday:
"We estimate the price movement after the election day using Bitcoin's daily trading volume and the popular strike prices in the market. According to our baseline forecast, Bitcoin's price could be close to $73,000 on election day."
Additionally, Kendrick specifically mentioned that if Donald Trump is elected president, Bitcoin's price might rise by about 4% immediately after the election results are announced, potentially accumulating a total increase of about 10% in the following days.
He believes that the dynamics in the Bitcoin options market provide clues about short-term price movements post-election. Currently, a significant amount of Bitcoin call options set to expire on December 27, with strike prices at $80,000, indicates investors' expectations for a rapid upward movement in Bitcoin.
If the Republican Party gains full control of Congress, Bitcoin could soar to $125,000. Kendrick added: "If the Republican Party wins full control of Congress, we will revise our end-of-year target price for Bitcoin up to $125,000."
On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to initially experience a slight decline, but it is still likely to stabilize around $75,000 by the end of 2024.
Kendrick stated that recent trading activity indicates the potential for Bitcoin's price to rise, noting that Bitcoin's recent gains have coincided with the performance of assets related to the "Trump Trade" concept.
He further pointed out that polling data aggregator RealClearPolitics, which compiles data from various online betting sites, shows that 59% of people are betting on Trump becoming the new president, and on the Polymarket platform, bettors predict a 75% chance of the Republican Party gaining full control if Trump wins.
He emphasized that Bitcoin recently dipped to a local low of $65,200 on the 24th, which may be the "final drop" before the U.S. election.
**Disclaimer**: This article is intended to provide market information. All content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice or represent the views and positions of Blockcast. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Blockcast shall not be liable for any direct or indirect losses incurred by investors from their trading activities.
This article is sourced from Blockcast:
Best regards,
AIC Team
2024/11/4
