Market Confusion After Tariff Pause: Is the Market Really Back?

Written by：The DeFi Investor

Compilation: Shanoba, Golden Finance

The market is a roller coaster. After initially announcing the highest tariffs in more than 100 years, Trump decided to suspend tariffs on most countries, excluding China, for 90 days. Financial markets then saw a sharp rally as tariffs were suspended.

Now, the key question is:

Will this uptrend continue, or is the bottom yet to come?

Here's what I think:

First of all, I think the suspension of tariffs is a good decision overall.

This certainly improves the short-term outlook for the market, but at the same time, it does not provide the kind of clarity that the market needs.

That's probably why the S&P 500 is down 4% today despite the tariff pause.

But even with tariffs suspended for most countries, Trump decided to raise U.S. tariffs on China to 145%, and as I mentioned in the newsletter a few weeks ago, macro uncertainty was one of the main reasons that I think led to the initial decline.

At this point, there are still many questions that need to be answered:

Will most tariffs be eliminated after the 90-day moratorium ends?

Will Trump finally reach a deal with China, or will the economic war between China and the United States continue?

Are markets pricing in the possibility of a U.S.-China deal?

Will Fed Chair Jerome Powell cut rates anytime soon? (According to Polymarket, there is about a 25% chance that this will happen in May)

With that in mind, I expect the market to remain mostly sideways or even down in the coming weeks – at least until Trump is expected to land some trade deals.

It remains to be seen whether my judgment is correct.

But for now, I'm not interested in making any major investments. As the saying goes, "Sometimes the best action is not to act."

At this point, it's hard to gain an edge in the market.

There's nothing wrong with not taking huge risks during uncertain times.

In the long run, the best way to improve your odds of success is to only make high-certainty bets and wait for the right moment to come your way.

So, at the moment I'm more inclined to focus on the following:

Airdrop / Yield Farming (mainly using stablecoins)
Working hard to increase my income instead of staring at the charts

Pair trading from time to time (opening long and short positions on different assets at the same time to profit from any market conditions)

In closing, I would like to say:

There is also a positive aspect (only for Bitcoin) in this market uncertainty. Trust in world leaders, the traditional financial system, and fiat currencies is waning due to market uncertainty.

Ignas sums it up perfectly:

"The worst-case scenario for BTC is rational leadership, friendly global cooperation, fiscally prudent policies, and low debt and the dollar as hard currency."

Unfortunately, BTC is currently highly correlated with the stock market. But in a world full of unpredictability, the bull market theory of Bitcoin will only get stronger in the long run.

This article is sourced from Foresight News:

https://foresightnews.pro/article/detail/82205

Respectfully submitted by the AIC Team

April14, 2025