Ten Questions for Arthur Hayes: When is Copycat Season? Who is stronger in ETH or SOL?

 

This article is from: Fortune

Compilation: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

 

Arthur Hayes was an iconic figure in Bitcoin's early days, having co-founded offshore exchange BitMEX in 2014 before facing legal issues for violating US regulations. Recently, Hayes admitted to failing to establish adequate anti-money laundering controls, accepted a suspended sentence and paid a fine, but received a full pardon from Trump earlier this year.

 

Currently, Hayes focuses on managing Maelstrom, a family fund, while remaining a highly influential figure in the crypto asset space. Fortune contributing author Anna Tutova sat down with him during Token-2049 in Dubai, where Hayes shared her thoughts on the current market – including predicting that BTC could reach $200,000 in the short term and be on track to surpass $1 million in 2028.

 

In the interview, Hayes also analyzes the ETH and altcoin markets and explains why he chose to allocate 20% gold assets.

 

The following is a condensed and edited version of the interview.

 

Q1: About the real deficit of the United States

 

Anna: Why do you call the Treasury Department's recent lending operations a "blindfold"?

 

Arthur Hayes: The Treasury Department has been depleting its Treasury General Account (TGA) and using "special measures" (underfunded government programs) to circumvent borrowing limits, resulting in the TGA falling from $750 billion to $450 billion in the quarter, meaning that $300 billion in spending has not been realized through new debt, and the actual amount of borrowing is much larger than the official figures.

 

It's confusing. Because we're in the debt ceiling period, theoretically the U.S. government can't net increase borrowing, but they're using all sorts of accounting to maintain spending without breaking the ceiling. From January to March 2025, the Ministry of Finance borrowed 22% more than it did in the same period last year, and the deficit was actually widening.

 

Q2: About market liquidity

 

Anna: What does this mean for Bitcoin?

 

Arthur Hayes: I think the actual borrowing needs of the U.S. government are much larger than the public data suggests, so Treasury Secretary Bessent is going to have to issue more debt and need to leverage that debt to the maximum extent through the banking system. The end result is a further flood of global dollar liquidity as the U.S. government increases spending.

 

In a nutshell, that's the essence of the repo operation, and that's why I think it will boost market liquidity. Based on this, I conclude that Bitcoin has bottomed out on April 9 and will continue to rise significantly as the government continues to borrow and Bessent secures low-cost financing.

 

Q3: About the copycat season

 

Anna: So where does Bitcoin need to go to start the altcoin market? What are the key factors driving the start of the copycat season?

 

Arthur Hayes: I think Bitcoin needs to break through $110,000 and continue to rise to $15-$200,000. I expect this to happen in the summer or early Q3, after which the money will start to rotate to altcoins.

 

Q4: What about bull market growth expectations

 

Anna: Do you think the next altcoin market will see a crazy hypercyclical rally like 2021? Or will it only bounce slightly?

 

Arthur Hayes: It's unlikely to be a repeat of 2021 when all coins skyrocketed 100x. There will be new narrative hotspots in the market, and some coins may rise wildly, but there is a reason why the long-term stagflationary "dinosaur coins" in your holdings are not rising. Many projects are inflated in valuation, have low liquidity, lack real users and revenue, and are now down 95% in price due to speculation on exchanges, and I don't think they will perform well in the next cycle.

 

Q5: What about personal earnings expectations

 

Anna: What is your expected return on this run? What are the target price and rate of return that are typically set?

 

Arthur Hayes: At least outperform Bitcoin's gains. If we decide to allocate funds, the underlying asset must be able to outperform the yield of Bitcoin.

 

Q6: About Trump

 

Anna: What are your expectations for Trump's crypto policy?

 

Arthur Hayes: His team should be able to roll out crypto-friendly policies, but that doesn't mean that your particular project will necessarily increase in value, or that the policy will follow your expected timeline.

 

The current market expectations are simply too high, and some even believe that crypto policy will be Trump's top priority. But let's not forget that Trump is a politician and he has too many higher priorities to attend to, and everyone needs to be patient.

 

Q7: About gold

 

Anna: Against the backdrop of heightened market uncertainty, we've seen a sharp rally in gold. Are you allocating to gold assets, or are you fully focused on cryptocurrencies?

 

Arthur Hayes: I've been holding gold for a long time, I have physical bars in vaults, and I have a lot of gold mining stocks – which are still undervalued given the soaring gold price. I think there's a lot of upside for gold as central banks continue to add to their holdings.

 

More importantly, I expect the US to significantly revalue its gold reserves, diluting its debt through the depreciation of the US dollar against gold. By the end of this round, the price of gold could reach $10,000 to $20,000.

 

Gold makes up about 20% of my personal portfolio.

 

Q8: What about ETH vs SOL

 

Anna: That's a pretty high percentage! There is a lot of debate about ETH and SOL in the market right now, which one are you more bullish on?

 

Arthur Hayes: I think ETH has more upside potential, and while it's being questioned right now — everyone thinks it's inactive and the development team is making mistakes, but the reality is that it still has the highest on-chain lock-up (TVL), the largest developer community, and the most secure PoS blockchain. That's right, although it's true that its price performance has not been as good as it could have been from 2020 to date.

 

SOL is obviously doing well, but if I'm going to do a new round of allocation with fiat now, I think ETH could outperform SOL in the next 18-24 months of bull runs.

 

Q9: About $1,000,000 in BTC

 

Anna: You predicted that Bitcoin would reach $1 million, when will that goal be achieved?

 

Arthur Hayes: I think Bitcoin will reach $1 million by the end of Trump's presidency, at the end of 2028.

 

Q10: What about the annual trend forecast

 

Anna: How do you expect the crypto market to move this year?

 

Arthur Hayes: Bitcoin's dominance will continue to rise, potentially approaching $200,000 in this rally. Then altcoin season arrives, and we'll see some interesting phenomena. By the end of the year, Bitcoin's target price was around $250,000.

 

This article is sourced from Foresight News:

https://foresightnews.pro/article/detail/84383

Respectfully submitted by the AIC Team

May26, 2025